Sunday, June 19, 2011

GeoPolictics -Silk Road which Steep

Text by Simon Saragih ,executive summary by Darmansjah Godjali

"Silk Road" is a nickname for Asia-Europe trade route in ancient times. Now the oil and gas rich region, with beautiful mountains, wants to close ranks for the sake of economic revival. However, there seems steep road. Foreign elements that have the potential to play down the cohesiveness of the region.

There is no leader "Silk Road" that ignores the economic potential of the region's population of 420 million. They are united in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation (Economic Cooperation Organization / ECO) member Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan.

istanbul turkey

With the value of gross domestic production (GDP) of about 2 trillion U.S. dollars, China's enthusiasm helped raise economic cooperation, it is not impossible ECO will complete the triumph of Asia in addition to China, India, and ASEAN.

ECO has a close history, religion, and culture and missed each other closer. ECO very fair to unite themselves, as the Anglo Saxon (English-USA as a major player) or the Trans-Atlantic alliance (US-Europe).

Turkish President Abdullah Gul and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad launched the ECO as a new opportunity to strengthen the economies of the region along with the fading glory of the EU and the U.S. economy.


However, the problem is not about the lack of potency, not too bad just land transportation connecting the ECO, which largely had been a track "Silk Road". The problem is not about Afghanistan, which was wracked US-made war, nor merely the US-led UN sanctions against Iran's nuclear program.


ECO also has distorted history-a sow chaos and ethnic strife group until now. This is compounded by the hegemony of foreign provocation. To maintain the hegemony of the unity of the ECO is not desirable to not say should not happen.


Another problem that is not less complicated is the rise of Kurdish nationalism spread across Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Turkmenistan. It's all ECO members except Iran. Iraq's ethnic Kurdish president, Jalal Talabani, Iraqi Kurds have declared their desire for independence. This could fuel the rise of the Kurds in three other countries. ECO invite high-minded brother, Talabani, as observers in the ECO meeting. However, Kurdish nationalism had never faded. It's a big eruption potential of the ECO.


Talabani in Turkey Istanbul request appreciate various ethnic languages, including Kurdish language. Turkey is a country that prioritizes domestic hegemony over people of diverse languages and ethnicities, including Kurds.

ECO is also not a case that's all. There are shades of rivalry between Turkey and Iran. Russian geopolitical experts, Yevgeni Satanovsky, said, remains to be seen whether the ECO can unite Turkish ambitions to become regional players in alliance with Sunni Islam. The attitude of Turkey is dealing with Iran's Shiite Muslim-dominated.


Another problem is the Armenian issue, not a member of ECO, but the neighbors directly with two members of ECO, Turkey and Azerbaijan. In Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, on 20 December, members of parliament as well as political experts Azerbaijan, Rasim Musabeyov, speaking at a seminar. "Armenia also factors that can damage the Caspian and Caucasus region," he said. Caucasus is the nickname for the region in a number of ECO member states.


Armenia is a multidimensional problem. Armenia is the historical enemies of Turkey. There is a history of the Turkish massacre of Armenians by Armenians supported the Soviet Union in a war in the past. Armenia, with one of the mountains that became the location of stranded ship of Noah, did not seem to want to see a strong Azerbaijan with Turkey's influence.

Militarily, Armenia, according to Musabeyov, lose to Azerbaijan. However, Armenia can become destructive to threaten all of Azerbaijani oil and gas pipelines.

Hardest problem is the occupation of Armenia over the territory of Nargono-Karabakh is a de jure into the territory of Azerbaijan. However, Armenia has a sense of responsibility towards Nargono-Karabakh, predominantly ethnic Armenian.

Russia also played in Nargono-Karabakh issue. This is the punishment for intention Azerbaijan who wants to be closer to the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to Dennis Sammut, Executive Director of LINKS (UK based).


U.S. Secretary of Hillary Clinton to the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev on 15 December and said the U.S. would still like to close with Azerbaijan. However, U.S. to Azerbaijan could be mad if you get closer to the ECO, in which Iran is a member. This is related to the attitude of Israel who do not like Iran because it is considered dangerous to the survival of Israel. It has been stated clearly by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iran always carry a sound eviction Israel into the sea. For Israel, Iran is a threat to the Jewish state's existence.

Not only Poland, supported by the European Union, closer ties to Armenia.

In that context, the ECO we do not know who the opponent and who is friend who always appear together on all fronts.

Azerbaijan Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov at Foreign Minister level meeting in Istanbul, asking ECO ECO helped solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "If the conflict is not resolved, would be difficult to achieve stability in the region. If the region is unstable, it will be difficult also to realize the cooperation, "said Mammadyarov.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Dovutoglu said, Turkey is very serious and make the ECO as an important part in its foreign policy. Turkey also refused to sanction the world by continuing to reach out to Iraq, including the economy. Is Turkey, who still want to unite with the European Union, and has become a member of NATO could do that without listening to opinions of the European Union and the U.S.? France has put noose by claiming the attacks of the past Turkey to Armenia as a genocide. Similar steps the U.S. imitated.


Adding severity of the situation, there are also leak WikiLeaks about U.S. diplomatic wire. Wire it contains words of President Aliyev in February 2010 when it received a visit from Deputy Secretary of State William J Burn. Burn The same month also visited Jakarta. Aliyev said that Turkey does not like the leadership under Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Ergogan. He also said that Azerbaijan did not want to sell gas to Turkey, but chose to sell to Russia because it did not want Turkey to be "hub" of gas in the region.

WikiLeaks also leaked speech Aliyev as saying does not like the Iran style. The speech was repeated by U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Donald Lu and stated in U.S. diplomatic wire. Wire is disputed by Novruz Mammadov, Head of International Relations Division President of Azerbaijan.

Iranian President Ahmadinejad gave an explanation about it. "Outsiders have always played a psychological war to divide the region .... WikiLeaks is not leaking, but was deliberately leaked in an organized way. ... The U.S. government issued a document and make an assessment based on their version. They're running a war that has no legal basis. ... the U.S. effort was not worth discussion and did not even have a political effect. "
Thus the "Silk Road", is very steep. Many people who play. It seems not easy to make ECO united. ECO is not aware of all those negative externalities. What is the ECO can overcome the internal problems and external constraints? Time will prove. However, to ease a number of undemocratic leaders in the region shaken, were divided, it will be difficult to imagine achieving targets ECO.


The signal was visible. ECO summit, 23 December in Istanbul, Turkey, attended by Turkish President Abdullah Gul, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, President of Kyrgyzstan Roza Otunbayeva, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Kazakhstan Prime Minister Karim Masimov represented. However, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, sent only low-level officials.


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